The Speculation Notebook

“What’s coming in 10 years that others are ignoring?”

This notebook captures forecasts, emerging trends, and plausible futures. It’s the raw material for speculative fiction and world-building—the “what if” questions that make near-future stories feel inevitable.

Notebook Name: Raw – Future – [Angle/Topic]

Ready to extract? After collecting your sources, use the Deepening Prompts to create structured ingredients for Writers Factory.

Source Checklist

Goal: Explore “what-if” branches, alternative structures, and variations for PLOT, WORLD, and CHARACTER work.

Include (3–5 items):

• 1–2 “What If?” documents you write Alternate endings, different POV choices, changed rules (“What if the Protagonist fails here?”).
• 1–2 structure or adaptation essays Analyses of how a book vs. film handles the same material, or alternative cuts/endings.
• 1 beat-map or timeline experiment Where you play with different beat placements or structural variants.

Avoid:

• Repeating the same canonical summary already covered in Literary Roots or The Arena.
• Pure fan-theory threads with no clear structure.

Why This Notebook Matters

The best speculative fiction doesn’t predict the future—it extrapolates the present. It asks: “If this trend continues, what world do we get?”

By collecting forecasts and emerging signals, you build:

• Plausible worlds (settings that feel like they could happen)
• Stakes that matter (changes that affect real power structures)
• Conflicts with teeth (winners and losers of change)
• Details that convince (the texture of a near-future)

You’re not writing prophecy. You’re writing a world that readers believe could arrive.

What to Collect

1. Forecasts & Reports (Depth)

Quantity: 3–5 pieces from credible sources

What to Look For: Specific predictions with timelines and reasoning, not vague “the future is digital” generalities.

2. The Conflict Projection (Sparks)

Quantity: 1 document (required)

For every future trend you collect, answer the critical question:

CONFLICT PROJECTION: [Trend]

THE TREND:
[What's the prediction? In one sentence.]

IF THIS COMES TRUE, WHO WINS?
- [Industry/group/type of person who benefits]
- [New powers that emerge]
- [What becomes more valuable]

IF THIS COMES TRUE, WHO LOSES?
- [Industry/group/type of person displaced]
- [What becomes obsolete]
- [What power structures crumble]

THE CONFLICT SEED:
[Winners vs. Losers = story conflict. What's the fight?]

WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
[Even if the trend is "good," what are the second-order effects?]

WHAT DOES DAILY LIFE LOOK LIKE?
[Not the headline—the mundane changes. How do people wake up, commute, work, date, die?]

3. Emerging Signals (Rhythm)

Quantity: 5–10 short items

Collect early indicators that the future is already arriving:

Why Signals Matter: Forecasts tell you where things are going. Signals prove they’re already moving.

4. The “Day in the Life” Sketch (Depth)

Quantity: 1–2 pieces (write these yourself)

Pick a future scenario and write 300–500 words describing:

A DAY IN THE LIFE: [Year, e.g., 2035]

MORNING:
[How does someone wake up? What technology? What's different?]

WORK:
[What does work look like? Remote? Automated? Gig? Obsolete?]

SOCIAL:
[How do people connect? Date? Make friends? Build community?]

FRICTION:
[What's frustrating? What new problems exist?]

MUNDANE DETAILS:
[The small things: how do you pay? What do ads look like? What's expensive?]

Why Write These? Fiction lives in the details. Writing “a day in the life” forces you to move from abstract trends to visceral, lived experience.

Source-Hunting Strategies

For Technology Futures

1. MIT Technology Review — Annual “10 Breakthrough Technologies” list
2. a16z (Andreessen Horowitz) — Investor theses on emerging tech
3. arxiv.org — Preprint papers on AI, biotech, physics
4. Hacker News — Search “YC-funded” for signals of what VCs are betting on
5. Patent searches — Google Patents for what big companies are filing

For Climate/Environmental Futures

1. IPCC reports — Climate science consensus
2. RCP scenarios — Different warming pathways (2°C vs 4°C worlds)
3. National Geographic — Visual journalism on change already happening
4. Local government adaptation plans — What cities are already preparing for

For Social/Political Futures

1. OECD projections — Demographics, migration, inequality trends
2. UN Population Division — Where people will live in 2050
3. Pew Research — Generational shifts, belief changes
4. The Economist “World in 20XX” — Annual forecast issue

For Economic/Work Futures

1. McKinsey Global Institute — Automation studies
2. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Job category projections
3. Remote work research — Stanford, Harvard studies on hybrid work
4. Gig economy analyses — How work is fragmenting

Organizing Your Sources (Optional)

You can use prefixes to organize your raw sources during collection:

Note: These organize your raw sources. The Deepening Prompts handle extracting structured ingredients—no special naming required for those outputs.

The Context Note (Recommended)

Create a Saved Note titled: WHY I CHOSE THIS FUTURE

[!IMPORTANT] Don’t Forget: After writing this note, select it and click “Convert to Source”. The AI cannot read your Saved Notes unless they are converted into Sources!

Template:

FUTURE ANGLE: [Topic - e.g., "AI and Work," "Climate Migration," "Longevity"]

WHY I BELIEVE THIS IS COMING:
[2–3 sentences on why this feels inevitable to you]

THE CENTRAL "WHAT IF":
[Phrase as a question: "What if [trend] actually happens by [year]?"]

WHAT I'M LOOKING FOR:
- [ ] World-building details (texture of the future)
- [ ] Conflict seeds (winners vs. losers)
- [ ] Stakes (what's gained/lost in this future)
- [ ] Character pressures (how does this change individual lives?)
- [ ] Counter-arguments (what could prevent this?)

HOW THIS CONNECTS TO MY STORY:
[If you have a book idea: how does this future serve your plot?]
[If you don't: what story could ONLY be told in this future?]

Example:

FUTURE ANGLE: Synthetic Media / Deepfakes at Scale

WHY I BELIEVE THIS IS COMING:
Video generation crossed the uncanny valley in 2024. In 3 years,
generating a photorealistic video of anyone saying anything will
be trivial. Trust in visual evidence will collapse.

THE CENTRAL "WHAT IF":
"What if video evidence becomes inadmissible in court by 2030?"

WHAT I'M LOOKING FOR:
- [x] World-building details (how do people verify anything?)
- [x] Conflict seeds (who benefits from untraceable lies?)
- [x] Stakes (what institutions depend on video truth?)
- [x] Character pressures (a journalist, a victim, a creator)

HOW THIS CONNECTS TO MY STORY:
My thriller involves a whistleblower with video evidence that
no one believes. The tech isn't the story—the erosion of
truth is the story.

Common Mistakes

Example Notebook Structure

Raw – Future – Climate Migration 2040/
├── [FORECAST] - IPCC AR6 Summary - Migration Projections.pdf
├── [FORECAST] - Brookings - Climate Migrants by 2050.pdf
├── [SIGNAL] - Phoenix Hits 120F for 30 Days.txt
├── [SIGNAL] - Miami Condo Prices Cratering.txt
├── [CONFLICT] - Who Loses When the Coast Floods.txt
├── [SCENARIO] - 2040 Phoenix - A Day in the Life.txt
├── [SCENARIO] - 2040 Duluth - Climate Refuge City.txt
└── WHY I CHOSE THIS FUTURE (Saved Note)

What This Feeds Into

When you run the Deepening Prompts, this notebook produces:

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